Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 127,528
2 South Dakota 121,637
3 Rhode Island 106,676
4 Utah 106,265
5 Tennessee 102,793
6 Arizona 101,748
7 Wisconsin 100,576
8 Iowa 100,192
9 Nebraska 97,693
10 Oklahoma 95,808
11 Arkansas 95,753
12 Kansas 94,554
13 Indiana 92,135
14 Alabama 91,590
15 Idaho 90,298
16 Mississippi 90,275
17 Nevada 88,970
18 Wyoming 88,755
19 Illinois 87,974
20 Montana 86,658
21 Louisiana 84,412
22 South Carolina 82,978
23 California 82,321
24 New Mexico 81,574
25 Georgia 81,171
26 Minnesota 81,101
27 Kentucky 79,870
28 Texas 79,693
29 Missouri 79,393
30 Florida 78,041
31 Delaware 77,875
32 New Jersey 76,167
33 Ohio 75,137
34 Massachusetts 73,921
35 Alaska 72,889
36 New York 70,389
37 North Carolina 70,131
38 Connecticut 69,374
39 Colorado 68,148
40 West Virginia 65,717
41 Pennsylvania 64,381
42 Michigan 60,368
43 Maryland 57,352
44 Virginia 57,237
45 District of Columbia 50,818
46 New Hampshire 46,747
47 Washington 40,657
48 Puerto Rico 39,408
49 Oregon 33,208
50 Maine 28,395
51 Vermont 18,235
52 Hawaii 17,915

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,030
2 Connecticut 890
3 Arizona 825
4 Texas 699
5 Kansas 670
6 Virginia 628
7 Louisiana 613
8 Georgia 597
9 South Carolina 576
10 New York 571
11 Kentucky 570
12 California 566
13 Arkansas 541
14 Alabama 538
15 New Jersey 515
16 Oklahoma 507
17 Mississippi 498
18 North Carolina 475
19 West Virginia 459
20 Massachusetts 457
21 Utah 444
22 Delaware 430
23 Florida 414
24 Ohio 398
25 Pennsylvania 397
26 Maine 389
27 Tennessee 371
28 Idaho 333
29 Nevada 326
30 Iowa 314
31 Indiana 304
32 New Hampshire 300
33 Montana 298
34 New Mexico 292
35 Missouri 288
36 Maryland 279
37 Illinois 278
38 Nebraska 270
39 Wyoming 270
40 District of Columbia 266
41 Colorado 259
42 Michigan 251
43 Wisconsin 241
44 Washington 222
45 Vermont 184
46 South Dakota 173
47 Alaska 154
48 North Dakota 150
49 Oregon 149
50 Minnesota 137
51 Puerto Rico 126
52 Hawaii 64

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,390
2 New York 2,181
3 Massachusetts 2,075
4 Rhode Island 2,015
5 Mississippi 1,988
6 South Dakota 1,965
7 Connecticut 1,956
8 North Dakota 1,890
9 Louisiana 1,868
10 Arizona 1,740
11 Illinois 1,653
12 Pennsylvania 1,648
13 Arkansas 1,571
14 Michigan 1,532
15 New Mexico 1,526
16 Alabama 1,462
17 Indiana 1,462
18 Iowa 1,426
19 Tennessee 1,351
20 Nevada 1,343
21 South Carolina 1,296
22 Kansas 1,276
23 District of Columbia 1,268
24 Georgia 1,245
25 Texas 1,242
26 Florida 1,202
27 Missouri 1,159
28 Maryland 1,157
29 Montana 1,124
30 Delaware 1,100
31 Minnesota 1,097
32 West Virginia 1,089
33 Wisconsin 1,083
34 Nebraska 1,031
35 Wyoming 1,029
36 California 985
37 Colorado 980
38 Idaho 960
39 Ohio 935
40 Oklahoma 856
41 North Carolina 854
42 Kentucky 851
43 New Hampshire 739
44 Virginia 729
45 Washington 563
46 Puerto Rico 561
47 Utah 505
48 Oregon 459
49 Maine 418
50 Alaska 344
51 Hawaii 283
52 Vermont 275

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alabama 34
2 Tennessee 22
3 Arizona 19
4 Mississippi 16
5 Rhode Island 16
6 Arkansas 15
7 California 15
8 Montana 15
9 Connecticut 14
10 Hawaii 14
11 Wyoming 14
12 Kansas 13
13 Georgia 12
14 Nevada 12
15 Pennsylvania 12
16 South Dakota 12
17 Texas 11
18 Delaware 10
19 District of Columbia 10
20 New Jersey 10
21 West Virginia 10
22 New York 9
23 Oklahoma 9
24 Florida 8
25 Idaho 8
26 Kentucky 8
27 Louisiana 8
28 Massachusetts 8
29 Missouri 8
30 New Mexico 8
31 South Carolina 8
32 Illinois 7
33 Maryland 7
34 Nebraska 7
35 Indiana 6
36 North Carolina 6
37 Ohio 6
38 Wisconsin 6
39 Virginia 5
40 Maine 4
41 Michigan 4
42 New Hampshire 4
43 Oregon 4
44 Washington 4
45 Colorado 3
46 North Dakota 2
47 Puerto Rico 2
48 Utah 2
49 Iowa 1
50 Minnesota 1
51 Vermont 1
52 Alaska 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 291,371 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 235,720 2 99
Dewey South Dakota 234,725 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 232,340 4 99
Bent Colorado 230,411 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 119,899 244 92
Richland South Carolina 83,349 1394 55
York South Carolina 76,433 1756 44
Orange California 75,673 1788 43
Pierce Washington 37,971 2891 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,452 4 99
Grant Nebraska 6,421 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,036 1881 40
Richland South Carolina 962 2000 36
Orange California 894 2097 33
York South Carolina 765 2276 27
Pierce Washington 504 2642 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons